Sunday, 2 June 2013

The movement of people (and its consequences)

This chart shows the "slow train wreck" that is Eurozone youth unemployment - courtesy of Pedro da Costa of Reuters:



(larger version here)

This adds up to an aggregate youth unemployment figure of 23.3% (in March 2013) for the Eurozone as a whole.

This is what the European Commission plans to do about it:
The Youth Employment Initiative was proposed by the 7-8 February 2013 European Council with a budget of €6 billion for the period 2014-20. 
The Youth Employment Initiative would particularly support young people not in education, employment or training in the Union's regions with a youth unemployment rate in 2012 at above 25% by integrating them into the labour market.
The money under the Youth Employment Initiative would therefore be used to reinforce and accelerate measures outlined in the December 2012 Youth Employment Package. In particular, the funds would be available for EU countries to finance measures to implement in the eligible regions the Youth Guarantee Recommendation agreed by the EU's Council of Employment and Social Affairs Ministers on 28 February. Under the Youth Guarantee, Member States should put in place measures to ensure that young people up to age 25 receive a good quality offer of employment, continued education, an apprenticeship or a traineeship within four months of leaving school or becoming unemployed. 
The Youth Employment Initiative would be complementary to other projects undertaken at national level, including those with European Social Fund (ESF) support, with a view to setting up or implementing the youth guarantee schemes, such as reforming the relevant institutions and services.
Of the funding, €3 billion would come from a dedicated Youth Employment budget line complemented by at least €3 billion more from the ESF. Given Member States' current budgetary difficulties due to the economic crisis, only the European Social Fund contribution would require Member States to top up with their own financial contribution.
Is €6 billion, of which part must come from the Member States with the most serious youth unemployment problems, really going to do any more than just scratch the surface of this problem?

And with GDP crashing in the countries with the highest youth unemployment, where are these jobs going to come from anyway?

The BBC's Newsnight programme recently interviewed the CEO of the Berlin Stock Exchange, Artur Fischer. Newsnight tweeted the following:
It's already happening, and not just from Greece. Here's a selection of news reports this year about the emigration of young people from the hardest hit Eurozone countries:

Ireland
The chart shows a downturn in Ireland's youth unemployment, from over 30% in early 2012 to 26% now. This is why:
"In the past four years, over 300,000 people have emigrated from Ireland; 40% were aged between 15 and 24".- RTE News, 9 May2013
Portugal
The migration of people from Portugal - of all ages, but particularly the young and talented - has become a national emergency
"More than 2% of Portugal's population have emigrated in the past two years....Most were young, highly-educated people fleeing to Switzerland or the oil-rich former Portuguese colony Angola."- BBC News, 25 January 2013
Spain
Spain currently has the second highest youth unemployment in the Eurozone. But its general unemployment level is very high too. According to El Pais, the largest exodus has been among young professionals aged 25-35. They are not strictly "youth"....but the younger ones are starting to go too:
"Spain's jump in unemployment has seen an exodus of youth, with tens of thousand of young Spaniards, many of them university graduates, looking for better opportunities in countries such as Germany and Britain and former Spanish colonies in Latin America......"A study by analyst Real Instituto Elcano in February shows 70 percent of Spaniards younger than 30 have considered moving abroad."- Al Jazeera English, 7 April 2013
Italy
As I shall explain shortly, Italy has a history of economic emigration. The difference is that whereas in the past emigration has mainly been from the poor South - and is one of the principal reasons why the South has remained poor - this time it is from the richer North. 
"Emigration from Italy rose by nearly a third last year to 79,000, with a growing number of young people choosing to leave the crisis-hit country, Italian media reported on Sunday, citing official data....with those aged 20 to 40 making up 44.8 percent of the total, from 28.3 percent in 2011."- The Daily Star, Lebanon, 7 April 2013
Greece
It's not just how many young Greeks are leaving, it's who they are. Brain drain:
"Greek emigration to Germany jumped by more than 40% last year....."A recent study by the University of Thessaloniki found that more than 120,000 professionals, including doctors, engineers and scientists, have left Greece since the start of the crisis in 2010."- BBC News, 30 May 2013

I do not wish anyone to think that I am bewailing the "terrible fate" of young people having to leave their homes in search of work. I certainly am not. There is nothing new - and nothing intrinsically undesirable - about young people emigrating to seek their fortunes in another country. To give a personal example, my great-uncle, Henry Dodson Noon, left the UK for Australia in the first decade of the twentieth century. His family were farmers, but he saw no future in farming in the UK at that time, so he went to Australia to carve out a new life for himself as a sheep farmer.* He was one of many young British men who left at that time. And my ex-husband's family are among a sizeable number of Italians who left a depressed Italy to seek new lives as hotel, cafe and small shop owners in Scotland (the most famous of them was Lord Forte of "Trusthouse Forte" fame, whose first hotel was opposite my father-in-law's cafe in Alloa). To this day they maintain links both with their Italian origins and with their adopted country, even though many of them - including my ex-husband - no longer live in Scotland either. I am sure my readers can come up with plenty of examples of their own. In human history, the movement of people is a feature, not a bug. It is how we create new lives for ourselves and how we develop and grow new economies. It is not, of itself, a bad thing. 

The problem is that the migration of young people from European countries may create even more difficulties for those left behind. The demographic timebomb awaiting Europe is nicely explained in this video from Reuters, which focuses on Latvia - which has already suffered a huge exodus of young people, as have other Eastern European countries. Are our family ties still strong enough for these highly-educated young people to send money back to the older generation that they leave behind, as young migrants in the past have done, and still do in many other parts of the world? Because if not, the future looks very bleak indeed for ageing populations in depressed countries in the South of Europe.....


Related links:

Portugal - immigration statistics
Latvia struggles with "demographic disaster" - France24 (h/t Andrew Lainton)
The Shortage of Bulgarians inside Bulgaria - A Fistful of Euros

* Sadly it did not last long....he was called up to serve in the Anzacs in WW1, was wounded at Gallipoli then killed on the Somme. He was my great-grandparents' only son....Like most people in the UK, my family lost members not just through emigration but through war. 

33 comments:

  1. in a world of increasing operational scarcity, the competition engendered leads to the current situation where the winners consolidate and protect their winnings and the rest, the losers are left to go more and more in the direction of slavery and death. this comment relates also to earlier posts...consolidation in a time of increasing scarcity and survival...
    sorry i missposted this below...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. quite right; also, what is rarely mentioned, the massive QE efforts of central banks only exacerbate this inequality by boosting stock and house prices, all assets which are typically owned by already wealthy people...all in the forlorn hope that there may be some trickledown to the serfs below.
      It would be laughable if it weren't so tragic.

      Delete
  2. "Are our family ties still strong enough for these highly-educated young people to send money back to the older generation that they leave behind, as young migrants in the past have done, and still do in many other parts of the world?"

    I wouldn't doubt family ties so much, but I'd wonder about how much spare money these migrants are likely to have. If the global financial crisis keeps dragging on, people may find jobs elsewhere, but maybe not well-paid jobs...

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  3. Care needs to be taken when quoting migration data for a country as open as Ireland,where there is a lot of movement both in and out of the place. while it is true that "In the past four years, over 300,000 people have emigrated from Ireland; 40% were aged between 15 and 24", it is also true that in the past four years, over 220,000 people have immigrated to Ireland; 38% were aged between 15 and 24".

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  4. On a technical note on the numbers, they do suffer for not being normalised for a few factors that tend to accentuate the north/south difference:

    - participation rate: a given proportion of an age class unemployed looks much bigger in countries with lower participation rates, or where exit (return to study, take care of kids, etc) is a more common response than being on the dole.

    - treatment of low paid transition jobs: in some countries it's easy to get a low pay part time job legally, while in others people will get the same kind of job on the black market as employers want to avoid full-protection contracts.

    - fraud social acceptability: the rates of how acceptable it is to be on the dole while you have a decent but unreported income varies between countries.

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  5. On the comparison with previous waves of migrations: it's now much easier to move back and forth than in say 1930 (no easyjet, no looking for a flat or job online then), so as economic fortunes turn, some of the migrants may go back, possibly importing back the best customs of the host country, or be replaced by people moving the other way.

    Also sunny countries may get an influx of northern pensioners, which nicely contributes to redistribution.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Two relevant posts on this topic:
    * Austerity "success stories" Latvia and Lithuania have reduced unemployment through NO significant job creation, only mass exile of the population, over 10% of both countries have left in recent years: http://www.craigwilly.info/2013/04/14/baltic-austerity-successes-or-how-to-easily-reduce-unemployment-by-exiling-10-of-your-population/
    * There is a history of emigration in Southern Europe, but traditionally these were *high fertility* countries, the twinning of 1.3-children-per-woman and mass emigration is going to have devastating long-term demographic consequences. A boon for Germany (gets skilled workers/taxpayers without paying for their education!), extremely dangerous for everyone else: http://www.craigwilly.info/2013/05/11/from-nations-to-provinces-the-demographic-collapse-of-southern-and-eastern-europe/

    ReplyDelete
  7. The impact of emigration (like immigration) is wildly over-stated. Its a marginal activity, both in terms of numbers and the scale of remittances. If the future looks "very bleak" for ageing populations in Southern Europe, emigration plays a small part in this, certainly much smaller than the birth rate, which has been below replacement levels in most OECD countries since 2000.

    It should also be borne in mind that a) a lot of emigration since 2008 has actually been migrants repatriating (e.g. Poles leaving Ireland and Brits leaving Spain), and b) the recent pick-up in migration is a sign of economic health as people tend to only migrate (as opposed to repatriate) when there is the prospect of a job.

    It's also worth remembering that emigrant remittances in the past were largely in the form of (direct) cash or (indirect) exports - e.g. the Irish in the UK buying Guinness and taking holidays back "home". Since the 80s (and turbo-charged in the 00s by the introduction of the Euro), a lot of emigrant remittances in Europe went into property - i.e. buying a place in the old country for holidays, retirement or as a pension pot.

    The major economic impact of emigration in many EU periphery countries in the last 30 years was its contribution to the property bubble, rather than its contribution to a brain-drain or to the ageing of the population.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are looking backward and saying "look it was ok then so it will carry on being ok". But I am looking forward, not backward, and I think the future may prove very different.

      Historically you are wrong: there have throughout history been examples of wastelands created by massive migration when the local economy collapses. I don't accept that the destruction of whole communities through economic migration is a sign of economic health.

      Delete
    2. I'm not saying that things don't change (the shift of emigrant remittances into property was a big change) but that we should be wary of assuming that migration has qualitatively changed - i.e. choosing to work abroad is being recast as "having to" work abroad.

      Intra-EU migration was high from 2000 onwards. It fell back after 2008, but is now inching back to its early 00s level. We're taking this as evidence of crisis, but it actually looks like a return to business as usual (see pg 21 of http://www.npdata.be/BuG/165-NV-A-migratie/0ECD-Migration-Outlook-2012.pdf).

      Delete
  8. Nice post and comments too. The assessment is quite simple:

    1) There is a dearth of opportunities.
    2) Whatever opportunities are present, the population is not qualified (either higher or lower) to take up these opportunities.

    Which means:
    1) Either governments and policy makers try to get the appropriate opportunities to their country OR
    2) People move to where the opportunities they seek exist.

    What is clear is that not all type of economic development suits all countries. The nature of economic development must be in sync with the skills available in the economy. To complete the circle, the skills developed must be in sync with the kind of opportunities you want to attract. In either case, it takes a lot of time to do so.

    ReplyDelete
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  16. i will love to share my testimony to you all the people in world.i got married to my husband about 2 year ago we start having problems at home like we stop sleeping on the same bed,fighting about little things he always comes home late at night,drinking too much and sleeping with other women out side.i have never love any man in my life except him.he is the father of my child and i don't want to loose him because we have worked so hard together to become what we are and have today.few month ago he now decided to live me and the kid,being a single mother can be hard sometimes and so i have nobody to turn to and i was heart broken.i called my mom and explain every thing to her,my mother told me about DR.agumagu how he helped her solve the problem between her and my dad i was surprise about it because they have been without each other for three and a half years and it was like a miracle how they came back to each other.i was directed to DR.agumagu on his email: agumaguspelltemple@gmail.com and explain everything to him,so he promise me not to worry that he will cast a spell and make things come back to how we where so much in love again and that it was another female spirit that was controlling my husband.he told me that my problem will be solved within two days if i believe i said OK.So he cast a spell for me and after two days my love came back asking me to forgive him.i Am so happy now. so that why i decided to share my experience with every body that have such problem contact Dr agumagu the great spell caster on his email address: agumaguspelltemple@gmail.com

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  19. Am Cynthia, My Life can be very displeasing especially when we loose the ones we love and cherish so much.My husband abandoned me and my 2 kids for 2 years he said he wanted new adventures.I asked what i had done wrong but he said nothing.He continued paying our bills but moved in with another woman i was so frustrated and a times i will cry all night because i needed my husband by my side. all thanks to Magicspellhome@hotmail.com was nearly loosing hope until i saw an article on how master Magic cast a love spell to make lovers come back. There is no harm in trying, i said to my self. i contacted him via email and after 18 hrs my story changed. words will not be enough to appreciate what he has done for me. i have promised to share the testimony as long as i live because he brought back happiness and joy into my life.If you having any kind of problem in your relationship and you need your man back i RECOMMEND master Magic. please do contact him directly on Magicspellhome@hotmailcom

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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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    MY Name IS Frank Silver

    ReplyDelete
  24. After being in relationship with Harry for five years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that don't believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I meant a spell caster called kizzekpe and I email him, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before two days, that my ex will return to me before two days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 6pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem and who is different from all the fake ones out there. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: kizzekpespells@outlook.com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything.I CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT YOU SIR CONTACT HIM NOW FOR YOUR SOLUTION.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hello people my name is Lisa dawn i am using this post to say a big thank you to Dr ekuku the great for what he has done for me i never thought i could spend xmas and new year with my man after he has abandoned my and my kids for almost 2 yrs.
    i have tried all means to get my man back but all proved abortive until dr ekuku can into the question i contact him on the 29th of dec 2013 and behold by on the 31st of dec 2013 he cam and said he was sorry for a very thing and that he wants to move in back with us and he is ready to do anything to compensate me for all the troubles he cause i told him that all i wanted was him and not a car or a jet.
    using this post to inform people out there that there are still great men not like other scammers who defraud people of their money.
    pls do contact him for help on the following ekukutempleofsolution@gmail.com and Tel :+2348111957679.he is a man to be trusted.
    LISA DAWN FROM OKLAHOMA, SAND SPRINGS USA

    ReplyDelete
  26. After being in relationship with Wilson for seven years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that don't believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I meant a spell caster called EZE MALAKA and I email him, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem and who is different from all the fake ones out there. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: extremewhitelovespell@yahoo. com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything. CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT YOU SIR HIS WEBSITE ADDRESS is http://extremewhitelovespell.webs.com CONTACT HIM NOW FOR SOLUTION TO ALL YOUR PROBLEMS.

    ReplyDelete
  27. my name is Neil Trotter he wife of Neil Trotter
    from Great Britain,i want to testify about a
    great spell caster called pastor walkinton that help me and my lovely husband
    win the lottery this year // See winning page
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-26627075

    i have never believed in magical powers
    until i come across him, it will be
    of great sin if i should go out from here
    without dropping the contact of this great
    spell caster,in case you need the help of this
    great spell caster you can contact him
    through his email: pastorwalkintonsolutions@outlook.com or cell number +2348136448648 once you contact him all
    your problems regarding luck to win a lottery
    will be over,once again i say
    very big thanks to you sir for helping me and
    my husband to win the lottery, and please sir
    keep your good work because people need
    your help in their lives.once more thank you if you need his help contact him on

    pastorwalkintonsolutions@outlook.com or cell number +2348136448648

    ReplyDelete
  28. HOW DR CUBA HELPED ME GET MY EX BACK
    I AM DICKSON, my wife dumped me 9(nine) months ago after I accused her of seeing another man. I wanted her back in my life but she refused to have any contact with me. she changed her mobile number, blocked me from sending her mails and even on Facebook. I was so confused and lost concentration that made me lose my job, it was disastrous. I kept seeing on several blogs how a spell caster keeps helping people get their ex back and I contacted this spell caster called DR CUBA for help, he assured me in 48hours that my ex will return to me, and to my greatest surprise my ex called me for the first time since we broke up. I am so happy that my love is back again, we are now happier than ever and I have gotten a job far better than my previous one, once again thank you DR CUBA TEMPLE , you are truly gifted and powerful. Email this wonderful man on drcubatemple@gmail.com. He is the only answer to your problems. He can be of great help and I will not stop publishing his name for the good work he did for me . again his email address is drcubatemple@gmail.com or call Doctor on +2347038965900

    ReplyDelete


  29. I want to thank God for the use (Doctorfadeyitempleofspell@gmail.com) as my source of salvation after 2 years of unemployment and my lover left me alone for 2 years, only broken heart until I met after a Dr.Fadeyi ladies testimony how he was helped by the same Dr. fadeyi, so he decided to contact him and when I told him all my problems laughed and said this is not a problem. everything will be fine in three days. Exactly on the third day of my ex lover call me surprised me and what surprised me most was that a company applies for more than four months ago called and said I should return to work as soon as possible.Am very grateful to Dr. fadeyi, if you wish to contact him, his email is (Doctorfadeyitempleofspell@gmail.com) he makes the spell follows
    One-against witchcraft
    Two-Contra misfortune
    3 - Magic Wallet
    4 - to become like
    5 - against divorce
    6 - Provocation divorce
    7 - Return of marital love
    8 - Gain Easy
    9 - vs. poison
    10 - Total Impotence
    11 - against unwanted assignments
    12 - to occupy a place in society
    13 - Development of sex
    14 - Early Menopause
    15 - Epilepsy
    16 - Sickle Cell Disease
    17 - Debate woman, man
    18 - Land Debate
    19 - Heartbeat
    20 - Ulcers
    21 - to hinder a situation
    22 - Protection from enemies
    23 - against the weakness of pregnancy
    24 - Tetanus
    25 - female and male sterility
    26 - Memorandum
    27 - Soaps will have the opportunity to review
    28 - Azoospermies
    29 - against spells
    30 - Protection return to sender
    31 - painful Standard
    32 - Hypotension
    33 - Hypertension
    34 - against strain
    35 - Mental depression
    36 - against attacks
    37 - Ce-Demes
    38 - to cause menstrues
    39 - to regularize the rules
    40 - to save a person
    41 - to avoid making dead children
    42 - to attract customers
    43 - easy to impregnate
    44 - to prevent a woman out
    45 - for being a witch
    46 - to neat the madness
    47 - Join for a boy
    48 - against waste
    49 - against divorce
    50 - to resume his wife or her husband
    51 - to own at work
    52 - to be busy
    53 - Keep your business well
    54 - go have a help and reuissir
    55 _ Hiv cure
    56 _ Cancer cure

    You can contact dr fadeyi on doctorfadeyitempleofspell@gmail.com or call Doctor on +2348109468820

    ReplyDelete
  30. After being in relationship with emma for seven years,he broke up with me, I did everything possible to bring him back but all was in vain, I wanted him back so much because of the love I have for him, I begged him with everything, I made promises but he refused. I explained my problem to someone online and she suggested that I should rather contact a spell caster that could help me cast a spell to bring him back but I am the type that never believed in spell, I had no choice than to try it, I mailed the spell caster, and he told me there was no problem that everything will be okay before three days, that my ex will return to me before three days, he cast the spell and surprisingly in the second day, it was around 4pm. My ex called me, I was so surprised, I answered the call and all he said was that he was so sorry for everything that happened, that he wanted me to return to him, that he loves me so much. I was so happy and went to him, that was how we started living together happily again. Since then, I have made promise that anybody I know that have a relationship problem, I would be of help to such person by referring him or her to the only real and powerful spell caster who helped me with my own problem and who is different from all the fake ones out there. Anybody could need the help of the spell caster, his email: drinegbedionspellhome@gmail.com you can email him if you need his assistance in your relationship or anything. CAN NEVER STOP TALKING ABOUT YOU SIR HIS EMAIL
    ADDRESS IS:drinegbedionspellhome@gmail.com CONTACT HIM NOW FOR SOLUTION TO ALL YOUR PROBLEM

    ReplyDelete